FreshTw
Fresh Two
Ronin
1273
Rating
Bayesian conservative rating = ΞΌ β 2Ο. The system is 95% confident this player's skill is at least this value. More matches lower Ο and raise this number.
1571
ΞΌ (mean)
ΞΌ (Mu) is the best estimate of this player's skill level. Wins raise it, losses lower it. Beating a stronger player earns more than beating a weaker one.
149.1
Ο (uncertainty)
Ο (Sigma) = how confident the system is in the rating. Lower is better. New players start at Ο=200 β it falls with every match played.
100%
Win Rate
Wins Γ· (wins + losses). Requires at least 1 match.
1
Wins
0
Losses
Skill Confidence Intervals
Based on ΞΌ and Ο, the system estimates this player's skill range at different confidence levels. The smaller Ο is, the narrower the band.
68% (1Ο)1422 β 1720
95% (2Ο)1273 β 1869
99.7% (3Ο)1124 β 2018
Trust Level
How reliably this player submits match results. Formula: rejections per 10 submissions. Fewer rejections = higher trust.
Optimal
0 rejections / 1 submissions
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Login / RegisterRecent Matches
| Date | Player A | Player B | ΞΞΌ Change in ΞΌ after this match. Positive = won. The size depends on the skill gap between both players and their Ο values. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/2/2026 | F |
Fresh Test | F |
π Fresh Two | +71.0 |